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Is Biden Right About a Recession? The July Jobs Report Suggests Yes.

News View by News View
August 5, 2022
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The robust jobs report was welcome information for President Biden, who has insisted in current weeks that the US will not be in recession, despite the fact that it has suffered two consecutive quarters of financial contraction.

However the report additionally defied even the president’s personal optimistic expectations concerning the state of the labor market — and appeared to contradict the administration’s principle of the place the financial system is headed.

Mr. Biden celebrated the report on Friday morning. “Immediately, the unemployment fee matches the bottom it’s been in additional than 50 years: 3.5 %,” he stated in an announcement. “Extra individuals are working than at any level in American historical past.”

He added: “There’s extra work to do, however at this time’s jobs report reveals we’re making important progress for working households.”

The president has stated for months that he expects job creation to sluggish quickly, together with wage and value development, because the financial system transitions to a extra steady state of slower development and decrease inflation.

“If common month-to-month job creation shifts within the subsequent 12 months from present ranges of 500,000 to one thing nearer to 150,000,” Mr. Biden wrote in an opinion piece for The Wall Avenue Journal in Might, “it is going to be an indication that we’re efficiently transferring into the following part of restoration — as this type of job development is per a low unemployment fee and a wholesome financial system.”

White Home officers prepped reporters this week for the chance that job development was cooling, in step with Mr. Biden’s expectations. The expectations-busting job creation quantity appeared to shock them, once more.

However Mr. Biden will nearly actually cite the numbers as proof that the financial system is nowhere close to recession. He and his aides have repeatedly stated in current weeks that the present tempo of job creation is out of step with the roles numbers in earlier recessions, and proof {that a} contraction in gross home product doesn’t imply the nation is mired in a downturn.



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